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SOC

Sable OffshoreB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Oil sales have restarted and the company now has a live pathway to prove that Santa Ynez can generate recurring revenue; if sustained operations de-risk the asset, the gap between the $12.76 anchor price and the roughly $23.17 median analyst target could narrow materially [#8-K-2026-03-30].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
A single-asset California concentration leaves the stock highly exposed to operational disruptions and adverse publicity.
Momentum
4
Value
33
Sentiment
88
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.00 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $7.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.40
Why
Momentum4 · Δ7d +2.6
Value33 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment88 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A single-asset California concentration leaves the stock highly exposed to operational disruptions and adverse publicity.
  • • Government requests disclosed in the 10-K create added headline and governance risk.
  • • The 10-K still frames the asset base as contingent resources rather than reserves, requires regulatory clearances for the broader ramp, carries a large remaining capital need for the OS&T strategy, and shows a leveraged balance sheet with a monthly liquidity covenant [#10-K-2026-02-27].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-15

Q1 2026 filing should show whether March oil sales improved liquidity

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
4
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.6
Δ21d
+2.9
Value
33
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
88
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 4.4 / Value 32.7 / Sentiment 87.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$771.32M
Beta
0.40
Shares Out
191.87M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.0
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.84
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
-70.2%
Gross Margin
+68.1%
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
$845.01M
Current Ratio
0.24
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data