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SNDK

SandiskC
Nasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary sources support a real earnings inflection: Q3 margins and EPS expanded sharply, Datacenter mix accelerated, Q4 guidance stepped higher, and management paired that with a $6 billion repurchase authorization. Secondary post-print coverage also indicates target-price and estimate increases, which fits the packet’s positive directional prior.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Only about 15% of the reported $41.6 billion remaining performance obligations are expected to be recognized over the next twelve months, limiting near-term realization versus headline backlog size. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
Momentum
32
Value
62
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $1,125.00 · Bull $1,450.00 · Bear $850.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
30 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-26 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $2,275.85
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d -29.4
Value62 · Δ7d +1.0
Sentiment51 · Δ7d +5.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Earnings surprise screen
30Non-qualifying2026-10-29 amc
View setup

SanDisk has compelling prior operating momentum tied to AI and high-performance flash storage, and recent reported quarters showed substantial beats. But the retrieved current consensus and guidance indications are mixed, no reliable positive estimate revision or revenue-upside signal was established, and available tape coverage did not provide enough complete recent-session data to validate the required strength, close-location, and accumulation tests.

Screen as of 2026-10-26. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 30 / non-qualifying.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Only about 15% of the reported $41.6 billion remaining performance obligations are expected to be recognized over the next twelve months, limiting near-term realization versus headline backlog size. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
  • • Q3 revenue growth was driven heavily by higher ASP per gigabyte, so any NAND pricing reversal could pressure both revenue and margins after a very strong print. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
  • • The stock already trades well above the packet’s median analyst target of 771.3684, so even strong post-earnings revisions may still leave valuation stretched versus consensus.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Post-earnings estimate reset after Q3 beat and raised Q4 outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
32
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-29.4
Δ21d
-62.2
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+3.8
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.3
Δ21d
+26.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 32.0 / Value 61.8 / Sentiment 50.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$1,450.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$1,125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$850.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$178.93B
Beta
-
Shares Out
144.53M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
15.9
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
16.87
Rev YoY
+371.6%
EPS YoY
-28016.3%
Gross Margin
+71.5%
Op Margin
+61.6%
Net Debt
-$4.56B
Current Ratio
2.29
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data