B+
Bull case
35%
Probability
Target price
$6.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SND
Smart SandANasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Second-quarter record volumes and revenue, higher average selling prices, and management's 10%–20% full-year volume-growth outlook support a cautiously positive execution case [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.
What can break
Frac-sand demand depends on customer well-completion activity; management's second-half demand outlook may not persist [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
Momentum
45
Value
63
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.10 · Bull $6.40 · Bear $3.30Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.75
Why
Momentum45 · Δ7d -35.2
Value63 · Δ7d +0.9
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +6.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Frac-sand demand depends on customer well-completion activity; management's second-half demand outlook may not persist [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
- • Freight, transload and mining costs could absorb the benefit of higher volumes or pricing [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
- • Cash conversion has not yet matched the strong second-quarter earnings presentation: operating cash flow was $3.4 million and free cash flow was negative $1.4 million.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-30
Third-quarter volume and margin follow-through
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
45
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-35.2
Δ21d
-39.8
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.6
Δ21d
+4.2
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 45.5 / Value 63.2 / Sentiment 63.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$3.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$205.21M
Beta
0.39
Shares Out
42.4M
P/E (TTM)
43.0
P/S (TTM)
0.54
P/FCF (TTM)
24.56
Rev YoY
+34.1%
EPS YoY
-54.8%
Gross Margin
+12.9%
Op Margin
+1.9%
Net Debt
$13.63M
Current Ratio
1.69
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data