B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SND
Smart SandBNasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 was described as one of Smart Sand's best quarters, with record volumes and revenue, strong demand across key basins, a raised 2026 volume-growth outlook, and continued capital returns. The deterministic prior also shifted positive after the earnings event.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.4.
What can break
A director reported a 50,000-share open-market sale at $4.93 [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-28].
Momentum
81
Value
63
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.30 · Bull $6.50 · Bear $3.30Analysis 2026-08-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.75
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +22.0
Value63 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +2.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A director reported a 50,000-share open-market sale at $4.93 [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-28].
- • Demand, pricing, or customer commitments could weaken after the strong Q2 period.
- • The company remains low coverage, with no reliable post-print analyst revision or target-change set available.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-11
Q2 results and raised 2026 volume outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
81
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+22.0
Δ21d
+45.0
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
-7.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 81.1 / Value 63.4 / Sentiment 62.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$5.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$208.18M
Beta
0.39
Shares Out
42.4M
P/E (TTM)
43.0
P/S (TTM)
0.54
P/FCF (TTM)
24.56
Rev YoY
+34.1%
EPS YoY
-54.8%
Gross Margin
+12.9%
Op Margin
+1.9%
Net Debt
$13.63M
Current Ratio
1.69
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data