B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SMWB
SimilarwebFNYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence improved versus a simple filing-monitoring view: Q1 landed at the top end of guidance, non-GAAP profitability stayed positive, normalized free cash flow reached a tenth straight positive quarter, RPO rose 18% YoY, and management tied incremental confidence to better sales productivity and AI-related demand. [#IR-2026-05-13]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Overall NRR slipped to 98% and $100k+ customer NRR fell to 103%, so AI and upsell momentum still has to outweigh retention pressure. [#IR-2026-05-13]
Momentum
97
Value
47
Sentiment
11
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.80 · Bull $5.60 · Bear $3.10Analysis 2026-06-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $10.80
Why
Momentum97 · Δ7d -1.2
Value47 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment11 · Δ7d +5.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Overall NRR slipped to 98% and $100k+ customer NRR fell to 103%, so AI and upsell momentum still has to outweigh retention pressure. [#IR-2026-05-13]
- • Q2 revenue guidance of $74.5M-$76.5M implies slower growth than Q1, raising the bar for another upside quarter. [#IR-2026-05-13]
- • The same release showed enough friction to keep this cautious: overall NRR fell to 98% from 101%, $100k+ customer NRR fell to 103% from 111%, Q2 midpoint growth guidance is slower than Q1, and the CEO succession process creates another reason for investors to wait for more proof.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-09
Q2 print must validate the raised 2026 outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
97
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
-1.5
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+6.2
Sentiment
11
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
+3.9
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 97.4 / Value 46.6 / Sentiment 11.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$749.86M
Beta
1.10
Shares Out
87.6M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-22.0
P/S (TTM)
2.26
P/FCF (TTM)
49.13
Rev YoY
+8.8%
EPS YoY
-71.0%
Gross Margin
+79.2%
Op Margin
-1.8%
Net Debt
-$35.49M
Current Ratio
0.70
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data