B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SMMT
Summit TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The April 30 company update kept the core ivonescimab timeline intact: ASCO OS data on May 31, HARMONi-3 squamous final PFS still in 2H 2026, and the November 14, 2026 PDUFA unchanged. The interim HARMONi-3 review did not raise safety concerns, which preserves the lead-program thesis [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Lead-asset concentration remains extreme; ivonescimab drives the thesis, so weak ASCO, Phase III, or FDA outcomes could re-rate the equity sharply lower.
Momentum
36
Value
41
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
8 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $15.00 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $29.06
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d +27.3
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -19.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -19.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Lead-asset concentration remains extreme; ivonescimab drives the thesis, so weak ASCO, Phase III, or FDA outcomes could re-rate the equity sharply lower.
- • Program breadth is expanding across multiple trials and collaborations, which raises execution complexity, enrollment risk, and spending needs before any U.S. approval-derived revenue arrives.
- • The same update also showed the interim HARMONi-3 look was not the breakthrough event some investors may have wanted, with the study simply continuing as planned.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
ASCO plenary overall-survival data from HARMONi-6
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
36
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+27.3
Δ21d
+25.7
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
54
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.2
Δ21d
-39.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 36.0 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 54.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.2B
Beta
-1.44
Shares Out
797.75M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.9
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-21.40
Rev YoY
-100.0%
EPS YoY
-63.6%
Gross Margin
+97.2%
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$692.87M
Current Ratio
6.96
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data