B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SMHI
SEACOR MarineDNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive read is that February's release already outlined several tangible supports: backlog above $500 million including options, Brazil contract starts, sold-out status for the large PSV fleet after North Sea survey awards, annualized SG&A savings of about $3.9 million, and a newbuild program management said was fully funded from asset-sale proceeds [#8-K-2026-02-25]. If the delayed Q1 update validates those points, the stock has room to move toward the $9.0 median target in the packet.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Balance-sheet risk remains material for a company of this size: the 2025 10-K shows long-term debt of about $304.6 million and highlights covenant, liquidity and vessel-sale execution risks [#10-K-2026-02-25].
Momentum
83
Value
33
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.25 · Bull $10.00 · Bear $5.75Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.00
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d -
Value33 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Balance-sheet risk remains material for a company of this size: the 2025 10-K shows long-term debt of about $304.6 million and highlights covenant, liquidity and vessel-sale execution risks [#10-K-2026-02-25].
- • Execution risk remains around asset rotation, drydock timing and delivery of the two funded newbuild PSVs scheduled for late 2026 and early 2027 [#8-K-2026-02-25].
- • The bearish read is that the latest hard company update is still the weak Q4 release, where revenue fell 25.0% year over year, average day rates fell 7.3%, and two premium liftboats were expected to be off-hire during Q1 2026 [#8-K-2026-02-25].
Catalyst clock
2026-07-28
Q1 2026 earnings filing is still the key near-term clearing event
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
83
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
33
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-3.3
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 83.0 / Value 32.7 / Sentiment 52.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$266.44M
Beta
1.26
Shares Out
27.13M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-9.2
P/S (TTM)
0.67
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.12
Rev YoY
-10.2%
EPS YoY
-147.7%
Gross Margin
-3.5%
Op Margin
-26.0%
Net Debt
$242.56M
Current Ratio
2.38
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data