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SMCI

Super Micro ComputerD
Nasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary and trusted secondary evidence now support a real demand signal: management tied the June 10 financing plan to roughly $39 billion of recent AI server orders from more than 20 customers, and Q3 results already showed triple-digit year-over-year revenue growth with margin recovery. If the capital raise removes a supply bottleneck and backlog converts on schedule, the post-selloff setup can recover toward the packet's $40.2 median target range.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
June 9 updated risk factors keep SEC, DOJ, and BIS inquiry exposure active and preserve a governance/compliance discount.
Momentum
98
Value
55
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $32.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-06-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $41.33
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d +0.8
Value55 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment42 · Δ7d -2.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • June 9 updated risk factors keep SEC, DOJ, and BIS inquiry exposure active and preserve a governance/compliance discount.
  • • Large equity and equity-linked financing raises dilution risk and may pressure the stock until deal terms and use of proceeds are fully absorbed.
  • • The market's June 10 reaction suggests investors are treating the financing as a warning that SMCI's balance sheet and cash conversion are not yet aligned with its order book.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-09

Updated June 9 risk-factor filing keeps legal and compliance overhang active

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+2.6
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+9.0
Sentiment
42
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.9
Δ21d
-6.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 98.4 / Value 54.8 / Sentiment 42.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$24.76B
Beta
1.52
Shares Out
646.87M
P/E (TTM)
24.3
P/S (TTM)
0.85
P/FCF (TTM)
82.38
Rev YoY
+93.2%
EPS YoY
+418.6%
Gross Margin
+10.8%
Op Margin
+7.1%
Net Debt
$1.2B
Current Ratio
3.87
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data