B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SMBC
Southern Missouri BancorpBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The earnings beat, stable year-over-year NIM expansion, loan growth, higher tangible book value, and dividend increase support a constructive operating trend. Immediate after-hours trading was reported up about 1% after the release ([Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-southern-missouri-bancorp-tops-q4-2026-profit-views-93CH-4809512)).
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
What can break
Deposit growth lagged loan growth in fiscal 2026, increasing funding and net-interest-margin risk [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22].
Momentum
38
Value
60
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $80.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $67.00Analysis 2026-07-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $83.67
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d -3.9
Value60 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +5.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Deposit growth lagged loan growth in fiscal 2026, increasing funding and net-interest-margin risk [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22].
- • FY2027 investments in personnel and technology may raise operating expenses.
- • Higher credit provisions, agricultural exposure, potentially more expensive deposits, possible margin compression, and planned FY2027 reinvestment could reduce earnings quality and limit multiple expansion.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28
Strong fiscal Q4 earnings beat with dividend increase
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
38
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.9
Δ21d
-15.3
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-5.2
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.0
Δ21d
+6.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 38.1 / Value 60.1 / Sentiment 68.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$67.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$841.04M
Beta
0.98
Shares Out
11.02M
P/E (TTM)
10.9
P/S (TTM)
3.58
P/FCF (TTM)
9.39
Rev YoY
+2.8%
EPS YoY
+31.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.5%
Net Debt
$75.22M
Current Ratio
0.05
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data