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SLVM

SylvamoB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 sequential EBITDA improvement, realized paper-price increases, improved North American supply-demand dynamics, and Eastover capacity projects support a recovery case. Management also reiterated potential long-term free cash flow above $300 million annually, but timing and execution remain uncertain.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.1.
What can break
Execution delays or cost overruns at Eastover could defer the expected capacity and reliability benefits.
Momentum
16
Value
56
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $44.00 · Bull $53.00 · Bear $33.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.25
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d +0.6
Value56 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment78 · Δ7d -1.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution delays or cost overruns at Eastover could defer the expected capacity and reliability benefits.
  • • Q2 free cash flow was negative $23 million despite management's expectation that cash generation will be weighted to the second half.
  • • The company remains loss-making with negative Q2 free cash flow and is still absorbing Riverdale, tariff, outage, and operating-cost disruptions.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-07

Q2 earnings show sequential EBITDA improvement but continued loss

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
16
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-6.8
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-2.4
Sentiment
78
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
+5.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 15.9 / Value 55.9 / Sentiment 78.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$53.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.45B
Beta
0.83
Shares Out
39.76M
P/E (TTM)
11.0
P/S (TTM)
0.55
P/FCF (TTM)
7.16
Rev YoY
+1.5%
EPS YoY
-175.7%
Gross Margin
+15.2%
Op Margin
+5.8%
Net Debt
$773M
Current Ratio
1.47
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data