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SKWD

Skyward Specialty Insurance GroupB
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 release showed strong operating EPS growth, premium growth, an 89.5% combined ratio, 20.4% first-half operating ROE, higher book value per share, and an expanded buyback authorization. These support a constructive view of execution and capital allocation.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
A June 2026 Form 4 reported an open-market sale by the Chief People Officer; insider activity is not evidence of operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-15]
Momentum
37
Value
54
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $68.00 · Bull $78.00 · Bear $54.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $70.92
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d -1.9
Value54 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +9.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A June 2026 Form 4 reported an open-market sale by the Chief People Officer; insider activity is not evidence of operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-15]
  • • Catastrophe and underwriting volatility remain material; Q2 included 1.9 points of catastrophe losses in the combined ratio. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
  • • The thesis remains exposed to catastrophe losses, underwriting and reserve volatility, execution across a diversified specialty platform, and multiple compression if premium growth or operating returns moderate.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

Q2 earnings showed strong operating execution

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
37
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
-36.3
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.7
Δ21d
+6.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 36.9 / Value 54.3 / Sentiment 76.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$78.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.56B
Beta
-
Shares Out
44.4M
P/E (TTM)
14.9
P/S (TTM)
1.51
P/FCF (TTM)
5.50
Rev YoY
+52.9%
EPS YoY
+15.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+15.2%
Net Debt
-$79.13M
Current Ratio
0.80
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data