B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SKWD
Skyward Specialty Insurance GroupCNasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 operating EPS grew 46% year over year, gross written premiums grew 13.3%, and the 89.5% combined ratio remained profitable despite 1.9 catastrophe-loss points. Managed-premium and fee-generating growth plus repurchases support a constructive, conditional view.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
What can break
Apollo-related growth complicates year-over-year comparability; the company labels selected 2025 figures pro forma and unaudited. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Momentum
80
Value
55
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $59.00 · Bull $68.00 · Bear $43.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $71.08
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d -2.3
Value55 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -0.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Apollo-related growth complicates year-over-year comparability; the company labels selected 2025 figures pro forma and unaudited. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • Catastrophe losses, adverse reserve development, or a weaker underwriting mix could erode the 89.5% Q2 combined ratio. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • The combined ratio was slightly worse than the prior-year 89.4% cited in secondary coverage, and faster premium growth could expose reserve or business-mix weakness.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 underwriting performance and earnings digestion
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
80
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
+23.3
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-19.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 80.5 / Value 54.6 / Sentiment 50.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$59.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$2.6B
Beta
-
Shares Out
44.4M
P/E (TTM)
14.9
P/S (TTM)
1.51
P/FCF (TTM)
5.50
Rev YoY
+52.9%
EPS YoY
+15.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+15.2%
Net Debt
-$79.13M
Current Ratio
0.80
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data