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SKWD

Skyward Specialty Insurance GroupB
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 operating EPS grew 46% year over year, gross written premiums grew 13.3%, and the 89.5% combined ratio remained profitable despite 1.9 catastrophe-loss points. Managed-premium and fee-generating growth plus repurchases support a constructive, conditional view.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.
What can break
Apollo-related growth complicates year-over-year comparability; the company labels selected 2025 figures pro forma and unaudited. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Momentum
83
Value
54
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $59.00 · Bull $68.00 · Bear $43.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $71.08
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +11.3
Value54 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +1.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Apollo-related growth complicates year-over-year comparability; the company labels selected 2025 figures pro forma and unaudited. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
  • • Catastrophe losses, adverse reserve development, or a weaker underwriting mix could erode the 89.5% Q2 combined ratio. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
  • • The combined ratio was slightly worse than the prior-year 89.4% cited in secondary coverage, and faster premium growth could expose reserve or business-mix weakness.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

Q2 underwriting performance and earnings digestion

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.3
Δ21d
+31.5
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
-17.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 82.5 / Value 54.2 / Sentiment 52.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$59.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$2.67B
Beta
-
Shares Out
44.4M
P/E (TTM)
14.9
P/S (TTM)
1.51
P/FCF (TTM)
5.50
Rev YoY
+52.9%
EPS YoY
+15.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+15.2%
Net Debt
-$79.13M
Current Ratio
0.80
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data