B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SION
Sionna TherapeuticsBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The September plan gives SION-451 plus SION-2222 a defined Phase 2a path, while cost cuts aim to fund operations into the second half of 2029. A credible efficacy signal could materially revalue the remaining program.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.7.
What can break
A September Form 4 records substantial open-market sales by RA Capital; this is an ownership and potential trading-overhang signal, not evidence about trial results. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-21]
Momentum
1
Value
58
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.20 · Bull $7.50 · Bear $2.30Analysis 2026-10-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-30 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-02 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-11-02
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-02
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-02. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.57
Why
Momentum1 · Δ7d +0.1
Value58 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment73 · Δ7d -6.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A September Form 4 records substantial open-market sales by RA Capital; this is an ownership and potential trading-overhang signal, not evidence about trial results. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-21]
- • AscenSION CF has not started; protocol execution, adherence, safety and efficacy remain unproven. [#8-K-2026-09-14]
- • SION-719 missed its key activity endpoint.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Restructuring and capital preservation
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
1
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.2
Value
58
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+17.2
Sentiment
73
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.7
Δ21d
-23.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 1.4 / Value 58.0 / Sentiment 73.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-30
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-30
Market Cap
$174.97M
Beta
-
Shares Out
45.21M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.3
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.28
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+61.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$227.21M
Current Ratio
20.05
As of 2026-11-02 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data