B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SIMO
Silicon MotionCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2's revenue and margin expansion and management's Q3 guide support a growth case if embedded, enterprise and storage-solutions sales persist. The October 28 report will provide the first direct check on the guided ramp.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Consumer NAND pricing and supply pressure may offset strength in embedded and enterprise products. [#SEC-6K-2026-07-30] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1329394/000119312526324391/d114913dex991.htm
Momentum
32
Value
48
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $220.00 · Bull $285.00 · Bear $150.00Analysis 2026-10-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $369.70
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d -38.8
Value48 · Δ7d +1.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +14.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bearish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Consumer NAND pricing and supply pressure may offset strength in embedded and enterprise products. [#SEC-6K-2026-07-30] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1329394/000119312526324391/d114913dex991.htm
- • Q2 cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash declined to $181.8 million from $210.9 million in Q1, while bank loans reached $59.2 million; monitor cash conversion alongside growth. [#SEC-6K-2026-07-30] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1329394/000119312526324391/d114913dex991.htm
- • The Q3 guide demands substantial sequential growth despite management-identified consumer NAND pricing and supply headwinds.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28 · AMC
Q3 results test a steep revenue ramp
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
32
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-38.8
Δ21d
-51.4
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+1.7
Sentiment
66
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.9
Δ21d
+0.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 32.2 / Value 47.8 / Sentiment 65.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$220.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6.35B
Beta
1.05
Shares Out
33.91M
P/E (TTM)
32.7
P/S (TTM)
3.98
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-33.88
Rev YoY
+122.9%
EPS YoY
+712.2%
Gross Margin
+48.9%
Op Margin
+16.3%
Net Debt
-$270.58M
Current Ratio
2.52
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data