B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$370.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SIMO
Silicon MotionCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The primary-source earnings release confirms substantial revenue and margin acceleration, strong Q3 guidance, and continued expansion into enterprise, automotive and AI infrastructure storage. The bull case depends on sustained customer ramps and mix improvement.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Cash and restricted cash declined to $181.8 million at quarter-end while bank loans were $59.2 million. [#PR-2026-07-30]
Momentum
76
Value
46
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
7 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $300.00 · Bull $370.00 · Bear $210.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $369.70
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -0.3
Value46 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -12.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -12.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cash and restricted cash declined to $181.8 million at quarter-end while bank loans were $59.2 million. [#PR-2026-07-30]
- • Execution and customer-concentration risk remain as MonTitan, Ferri and Boot Drive products scale from early-stage contributions. [#PR-2026-07-30]
- • The thesis remains execution-sensitive: enterprise and Boot Drive products are still scaling, consumer businesses face NAND pricing and supply headwinds, and June Form 4 filings show director open-market sales.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
Q2 earnings beat with raised Q3 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+41.5
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.9
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.3
Δ21d
-9.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 75.8 / Value 46.3 / Sentiment 59.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$300.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$210.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$9.25B
Beta
1.05
Shares Out
33.91M
P/E (TTM)
32.7
P/S (TTM)
3.98
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-49.30
Rev YoY
+122.9%
EPS YoY
+712.2%
Gross Margin
+48.9%
Op Margin
+16.3%
Net Debt
-$270.58M
Current Ratio
2.52
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data