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SHW

Sherwin-WilliamsB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 result combined sales growth, adjusted EPS growth, margin expansion, higher cash generation, shareholder returns, and raised FY2026 guidance. Pricing, account wins, and share-of-wallet gains provide support even without a broad demand recovery.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
What can break
Demand remains soft across many end markets.
Momentum
72
Value
51
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $390.63 · Bull $425.00 · Bear $300.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
39 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-10-27 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-25 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $385.00
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d +21.8
Value51 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +0.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
39Non-qualifying2026-10-27 bmo
View setup

SHW had a modest positive short-term tape and a strong close location on Oct. 22, while Q3 consensus points to year-over-year growth; however, the checked estimate source reports a zero Earnings ESP and the available evidence does not establish positive EPS or revenue revisions. Recent volume also stayed below the 1.5x threshold, leaving the required pre-event surprise signals incomplete.

Screen as of 2026-10-25. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 39 / non-qualifying.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Demand remains soft across many end markets.
  • • Pricing actions could reduce volume or customer demand if elasticity is higher than expected.
  • • The company explicitly cited no meaningful demand improvement and ongoing global uncertainty.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · BMO

Q2 beat and raised FY2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
72
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+21.8
Δ21d
+26.0
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-18.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 71.5 / Value 50.5 / Sentiment 65.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$425.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$390.63
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$300.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$81.82B
Beta
1.25
Shares Out
242.76M
P/E (TTM)
32.4
P/S (TTM)
3.54
P/FCF (TTM)
49.83
Rev YoY
+7.5%
EPS YoY
+14.2%
Gross Margin
+48.3%
Op Margin
+16.5%
Net Debt
$13.74B
Current Ratio
0.73
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data