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SHOE

Shoe Station GroupC
Nasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Improved August comps, stronger store conversion, 18.8% e-commerce comparable growth, lower inventory, and a debt-free balance sheet provide a recovery path if localized assortments and advertising restore traffic. Williams Trading maintained its Buy rating after the print, although it reduced its target.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.75-$0.90 is materially below prior guidance of $1.40-$1.60, indicating a substantial earnings reset.
Momentum
43
Value
68
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.50 · Bull $15.50 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-09-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.00
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d +14.3
Value68 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment42 · Δ7d -3.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.75-$0.90 is materially below prior guidance of $1.40-$1.60, indicating a substantial earnings reset.
  • • Further aged-inventory liquidation could trade near-term cash generation for continued merchandise-margin pressure.
  • • Q2 revenue, comparable sales, and margin deteriorated sharply, while management cut full-year guidance and expects promotions to persist.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-14

Localized fall assortment faces its first meaningful validation

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
43
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+14.3
Δ21d
+27.0
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
42
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.6
Δ21d
-19.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 43.1 / Value 67.8 / Sentiment 42.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$384.11M
Beta
1.35
Shares Out
27.18M
P/E (TTM)
8.4
P/S (TTM)
0.42
P/FCF (TTM)
25.69
Rev YoY
-2.5%
EPS YoY
-160.4%
Gross Margin
+36.3%
Op Margin
+4.3%
Net Debt
$240.7M
Current Ratio
4.02
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data