B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SGRY
Surgery PartnersANasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $3.35-$3.45 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million, combined with 5.0% same-facility revenue growth and a potential divestiture-driven deleveraging benefit, could support re-rating from depressed levels.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.2.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA decline despite revenue growth may indicate ongoing margin pressure.
Momentum
12
Value
66
Sentiment
92
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.70 · Bull $23.00 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.73
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d +0.3
Value66 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment92 · Δ7d +9.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted EBITDA decline despite revenue growth may indicate ongoing margin pressure.
- • Higher government reimbursement exposure could pressure margins and cash generation.
- • Adjusted EBITDA declined year over year, case growth was nearly flat, and the pending transaction still requires approvals.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-08
Idaho Falls transaction closing
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-11.6
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
92
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.2
Δ21d
+8.9
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 11.8 / Value 66.1 / Sentiment 92.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.88B
Beta
1.98
Shares Out
130.92M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-23.4
P/S (TTM)
0.60
P/FCF (TTM)
10.22
Rev YoY
+2.7%
EPS YoY
+490.9%
Gross Margin
+17.3%
Op Margin
+13.6%
Net Debt
$3.78B
Current Ratio
1.95
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data