B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SGRY
Surgery PartnersDNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The completed sale creates a specific deleveraging opportunity. If proceeds materially reduce debt while ambulatory case growth and cash conversion improve, the continuing business could merit a higher valuation.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
Q2 adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow declined year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
Momentum
87
Value
63
Sentiment
26
Setup hits (3d)
5 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $18.80 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-10-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $22.08
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +41.0
Value63 · Δ7d -2.6
Sentiment26 · Δ7d -41.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Q2 adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow declined year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
- • Q2 revenue-per-case growth substantially exceeded case growth, leaving procedure-volume durability uncertain. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
- • Q2 case growth was just 0.3%, adjusted EBITDA fell to $125.2 million from $129.0 million, and operating cash flow fell to $59.3 million from $81.3 million.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Debt reduction after completed Idaho Falls sale
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
87
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+41.0
Δ21d
+50.1
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.6
Δ21d
-3.3
Sentiment
26
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-41.5
Δ21d
-58.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 87.3 / Value 62.5 / Sentiment 26.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-10. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$3.01B
Beta
1.98
Shares Out
130.92M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-37.5
P/S (TTM)
0.60
P/FCF (TTM)
10.22
Rev YoY
+2.7%
EPS YoY
+490.9%
Gross Margin
+17.3%
Op Margin
+13.6%
Net Debt
$3.78B
Current Ratio
1.95
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data