RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

SGHC

Super Group (SGHC)A
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Raised guidance, Q2 revenue growth and EBITDA leverage support a modestly positive view if Africa and casino-led performance persists beyond the World Cup. [#PR-2026-08-04]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP and may not track IFRS profit or distributable cash. [#PR-2026-08-04]
Momentum
20
Value
58
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $12.50 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $19.38
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d -2.7
Value58 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +3.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP and may not track IFRS profit or distributable cash. [#PR-2026-08-04]
  • • Gaming taxes, licensing and regulatory changes across operating markets could impair demand or margins. [#PR-2026-08-04]
  • • World Cup demand and sports outcomes may flatter Q2, while regulation, gaming taxes, customer retention and execution could weaken future margins.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Delivery against raised FY2026 guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
20
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
-30.1
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
70
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
-6.3
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 19.9 / Value 58.4 / Sentiment 70.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.51B
Beta
1.09
Shares Out
508.1M
P/E (TTM)
27.5
P/S (TTM)
2.75
P/FCF (TTM)
38.21
Rev YoY
+18.1%
EPS YoY
-3052.5%
Gross Margin
+28.8%
Op Margin
+21.3%
Net Debt
-$438M
Current Ratio
1.83
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data