B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$108.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SBUX
StarbucksCNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-print read-through is constructive: trusted coverage says the company beat revenue, EPS, and comp expectations, shares reacted up roughly 6-7% immediately after the release, and several firms lifted targets on April 29, indicating the turnaround is gaining credibility beyond management's framing.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.4.
What can break
China underlying demand remains less convincing than the headline segment profit improvement, with China comparable sales up only 0.5% and some margin benefit coming from held-for-sale accounting rather than pure operating acceleration [#8-K-2026-04-28] [#10-Q-2026-04-28].
Momentum
62
Value
44
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $101.00 · Bull $108.00 · Bear $90.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $113.44
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d +1.9
Value44 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +7.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • China underlying demand remains less convincing than the headline segment profit improvement, with China comparable sales up only 0.5% and some margin benefit coming from held-for-sale accounting rather than pure operating acceleration [#8-K-2026-04-28] [#10-Q-2026-04-28].
- • Management still faces commodity and tariff volatility; the 10-Q says financial recovery from unlawful IEEPA tariffs is uncertain, so cost relief should not be treated as banked [#10-Q-2026-04-28].
- • The counterpoint is that North America segment margin still contracted 170 bps from labor, mix, tariffs, and coffee costs, China comparable sales were only up 0.5%, and at least one sell-side read flagged softer implied second-half EPS despite the headline guide raise; revision breadth is still early rather than fully confirmed.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-29
Q2 beat and FY26 guidance raise reset the near-term narrative
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
62
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
+17.6
Value
44
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+4.5
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.4
Δ21d
+4.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 62.5 / Value 43.7 / Sentiment 63.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$101.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$123.03B
Beta
0.95
Shares Out
1.14B
P/E (TTM)
53.1
P/S (TTM)
2.65
P/FCF (TTM)
130.51
Rev YoY
-1.4%
EPS YoY
+86.6%
Gross Margin
+16.5%
Op Margin
+10.0%
Net Debt
$23.14B
Current Ratio
0.76
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data