B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SBAC
SBACNasdaq / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Steady carrier upgrades, new colocations and Central American builds could support leasing growth; investment-grade financing and the expanded revolver improve funding flexibility. Q2 net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 6.4x, within management's 6.0x–7.0x target range.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Domestic leasing contraction persists despite management's description of steady carrier activity. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
Momentum
55
Value
62
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $181.00 · Bull $205.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $224.05
Why
Momentum55 · Δ7d +3.3
Value62 · Δ7d -
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -19.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Domestic leasing contraction persists despite management's description of steady carrier activity. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
- • Higher cash interest expense and 6.4x net debt to adjusted EBITDA leave results sensitive to funding costs and execution. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
- • Q2 domestic site-leasing revenue declined 3.7% year over year, AFFO per share fell from $3.17 to $3.05, and net cash interest expense increased.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02
November 2 third-quarter results test the leasing outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
55
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
+21.2
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.6
Δ21d
-47.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 55.2 / Value 62.4 / Sentiment 47.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$181.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$19.6B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
106.09M
P/E (TTM)
23.9
P/S (TTM)
7.26
P/FCF (TTM)
33.00
Rev YoY
+2.3%
EPS YoY
-10.7%
Gross Margin
+63.8%
Op Margin
+53.7%
Net Debt
$14.88B
Current Ratio
0.17
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data