B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SATL
SatellogicBNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 results provide the strongest evidence yet that Satellogic can convert commercial wins into operating leverage: revenue accelerated sharply, operating income and adjusted EBITDA turned positive, and contracted visibility improved [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]. Merlin and defense-program execution could support further rerating.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.5.
What can break
Analyst coverage is thin: the packet provides no analyst-count, consensus-surprise, or post-earnings-revision data.
Momentum
74
Value
34
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.25 · Bull $8.50 · Bear $3.00Analysis 2026-08-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $10.20
Why
Momentum74 · Δ7d -19.7
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment73 · Δ7d -13.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst coverage is thin: the packet provides no analyst-count, consensus-surprise, or post-earnings-revision data.
- • Merlin's targeted Q4 2026 first launch and H1 2027 full operational capability may face schedule or execution delays [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • The positive operating result has not established durable GAAP profitability; Q2 still included a $20.0 million net loss, largely reflecting a $19.7 million non-cash fair-value charge [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 2026 operating inflection and stronger contracted visibility
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
74
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.7
Δ21d
-3.6
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.5
Δ21d
-9.9
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 73.5 / Value 34.2 / Sentiment 73.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$3.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$893.23M
Beta
1.35
Shares Out
153.74M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-132.6
P/S (TTM)
21.13
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-19.27
Rev YoY
+258.5%
EPS YoY
+106.7%
Gross Margin
+60.9%
Op Margin
-66.8%
Net Debt
-$38.45M
Current Ratio
2.34
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data