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SABR

SabreD
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Liquidity was $791.6M at year-end 2025, no maturities occur after the 2027 securitization facility until 2029, and the March 2026 governance deal removed an immediate rights-plan fight; if Sabre handles the 2026 maturity stack without a punitive outcome, the equity can re-rate from distressed levels [#10-K-2026-02-18] [#8-K-2026-03-05].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
2026 refinancing or exchangeable-note resolution could be dilutive or expensive.
Momentum
90
Value
53
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.60 · Bull $2.25 · Bear $1.10Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.14
Why
Momentum90 · Δ7d -
Value53 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment33 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 refinancing or exchangeable-note resolution could be dilutive or expensive.
  • • Governance détente with Constellation may not translate into strategic or operating improvement.
  • • The company still faces a heavy debt burden, about $247.7M of 2026 maturities including $150M of exchangeable notes due August 1, 2026, while guiding to only about $10M of operating cash flow and roughly negative $70M of free cash flow in 2026, so the stock remains highly sensitive to refinancing terms and any operating miss [#10-K-2026-02-18].

Catalyst clock

2026-04-29

April 29, 2026 annual meeting after Constellation governance settlement

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
90
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
33
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 90.5 / Value 52.7 / Sentiment 32.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$869.72M
Beta
1.06
Shares Out
403.58M
P/E (TTM)
1.1
P/S (TTM)
0.19
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-51.07
Rev YoY
+3.6%
EPS YoY
-86.2%
Gross Margin
+56.2%
Op Margin
+13.6%
Net Debt
$3.5B
Current Ratio
1.02
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data