B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RYZ
RyersonCNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest checked evidence is company-supplied: Q1 same-store shipments were the best in nearly four years, margins expanded, adjusted EBITDA ex-LIFO was above management's prior guidance range, and Q2 guidance points to another sequential lift as Olympic Steel is included for a full quarter. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.9.
What can break
Post-merger leverage is materially higher, with total debt around $907.7 million and net debt around $882.6 million at March 31, 2026. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
Momentum
96
Value
39
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.00 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.00
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d +2.9
Value39 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -4.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Post-merger leverage is materially higher, with total debt around $907.7 million and net debt around $882.6 million at March 31, 2026. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
- • Q1 operating cash flow was negative $179.2 million as receivables, inventory, and merger-related costs consumed cash; a slower working-capital unwind would pressure the deleveraging story. [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
- • The checked post-print read is still mixed: trusted coverage reviewed on May 9, 2026 framed the quarter as an EPS beat but a revenue miss, while Ryerson's own filings show total debt of about $908 million, net debt of about $883 million, and Q1 operating cash outflow of $179.2 million as working capital and merger costs rose.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-18
Capital return adds support but competes with deleveraging needs
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
96
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
+59.2
Value
39
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.9
Δ21d
-17.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 96.0 / Value 38.8 / Sentiment 58.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.52B
Beta
1.58
Shares Out
51.9M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-16.7
P/S (TTM)
0.19
P/FCF (TTM)
10.43
Rev YoY
+71.6%
EPS YoY
+402.0%
Gross Margin
+17.3%
Op Margin
+0.3%
Net Debt
$804.5M
Current Ratio
2.21
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data