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RYAN

Ryan SpecialtyC
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 demonstrated continued platform resilience despite difficult property conditions: organic growth remained positive, adjusted EPS grew double digits, casualty and underwriting-management activity were supportive, and capital return was substantial. Capacity expansion and specialty-product breadth could support durable growth.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
Analyst target count and complete post-print consensus surprise or estimate-revision data are unavailable; listed target increases come from secondary market coverage.
Momentum
48
Value
43
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $48.85 · Bull $55.00 · Bear $36.50Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $47.85
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d +28.4
Value43 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -8.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst target count and complete post-print consensus surprise or estimate-revision data are unavailable; listed target increases come from secondary market coverage.
  • • Construction-related casualty wins can be lumpy because client binding decisions are timing-sensitive. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-01]
  • • The quarter showed deceleration from Q1's 11.8% organic growth to 6.7%, a 40-basis-point adjusted EBITDAC margin decline, lower GAAP net income, and continued property-pricing and competition pressure.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Q2 results were resilient but the post-print market reaction was weak

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
48
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+28.4
Δ21d
+28.9
Value
43
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.7
Δ21d
-29.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 47.7 / Value 43.3 / Sentiment 60.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$48.85
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$11.17B
Beta
0.62
Shares Out
122.08M
P/E (TTM)
110.2
P/S (TTM)
4.71
P/FCF (TTM)
27.45
Rev YoY
+6.7%
EPS YoY
-14.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+20.5%
Net Debt
$3.37B
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data