B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RYAN
Ryan SpecialtyBNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 demonstrated continued platform resilience despite difficult property conditions: organic growth remained positive, adjusted EPS grew double digits, casualty and underwriting-management activity were supportive, and capital return was substantial. Capacity expansion and specialty-product breadth could support durable growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.0.
What can break
Analyst target count and complete post-print consensus surprise or estimate-revision data are unavailable; listed target increases come from secondary market coverage.
Momentum
42
Value
43
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $48.85 · Bull $55.00 · Bear $36.50Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $49.91
Why
Momentum42 · Δ7d -22.0
Value43 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment78 · Δ7d +12.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst target count and complete post-print consensus surprise or estimate-revision data are unavailable; listed target increases come from secondary market coverage.
- • Construction-related casualty wins can be lumpy because client binding decisions are timing-sensitive. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-01]
- • The quarter showed deceleration from Q1's 11.8% organic growth to 6.7%, a 40-basis-point adjusted EBITDAC margin decline, lower GAAP net income, and continued property-pricing and competition pressure.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Q2 results were resilient but the post-print market reaction was weak
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
42
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-22.0
Δ21d
-25.3
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
78
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.0
Δ21d
+3.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 42.2 / Value 43.4 / Sentiment 77.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$48.85
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.66B
Beta
0.62
Shares Out
122.08M
P/E (TTM)
110.2
P/S (TTM)
4.71
P/FCF (TTM)
27.45
Rev YoY
+6.7%
EPS YoY
-14.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+20.5%
Net Debt
$3.37B
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data