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RYAM

Rayonier Advanced MaterialsB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 rebound, sharp Cellulose Specialties pricing improvement, operational initiative pipeline and Q4 strategic review create credible rerating paths if management converts improvement into sustained cash generation or a value-maximizing transaction.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.7.
What can break
Elevated leverage and tariff exposure could constrain refinancing and equity value.
Momentum
41
Value
51
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.25 · Bull $13.50 · Bear $5.75Analysis 2026-08-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.00
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d +3.9
Value51 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d +0.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Elevated leverage and tariff exposure could constrain refinancing and equity value.
  • • Paperboard & High Yield Pulp losses and the high-yield-pulp impairment may persist.
  • • The company remains loss-making, Paperboard & High Yield Pulp is underperforming, and balance-sheet constraints make execution and strategic-review timing critical.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Loss-making Paperboard segment and balance-sheet pressure

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
41
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
-12.6
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+3.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 40.8 / Value 51.4 / Sentiment 71.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$562.8M
Beta
2.21
Shares Out
67.64M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.3
P/S (TTM)
0.32
P/FCF (TTM)
4.92
Rev YoY
+10.6%
EPS YoY
-90.9%
Gross Margin
+5.9%
Op Margin
+0.8%
Net Debt
$730.45M
Current Ratio
1.37
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data