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RXO

RXOD
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes successful margin recovery, stronger freight demand, and positive re-rating from improved contract economics and multiple expansion; under this scenario RXO moves toward high-end analyst outputs and industrial peers, consistent with a 30.00 target within a 12-month horizon.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.3.
What can break
Execution issues in scaling technology/operations
Momentum
33
Value
38
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.00 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-02-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $24.47
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d +8.6
Value38 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +9.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution issues in scaling technology/operations
  • • Fuel cost or regulatory shocks increasing operating expense
  • • Bear case assumes continued pricing pressure, weaker freight volumes, or execution slip that compresses margins and drives consensus toward the low end of published targets; in this scenario RXO revisits analyst lows near 11.00.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-09

Analyst target revisions / re-rating window

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
33
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+8.6
Δ21d
+22.0
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.3
Δ21d
+14.4
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 32.9 / Value 37.6 / Sentiment 52.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.87B
Beta
-
Shares Out
164.93M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-39.5
P/S (TTM)
0.37
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-52.30
Rev YoY
+25.0%
EPS YoY
-0.7%
Gross Margin
+16.4%
Op Margin
-0.2%
Net Debt
$652M
Current Ratio
1.27
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data