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RVMD

Revolution MedicinesF
Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case remains that the RASolute 302 survival data materially advanced daraxonrasib toward a filing path and that the May 6 Q1 update kept the clinical and funding story intact, with roughly $2.1 billion of April net proceeds added after the Q1 balance-sheet date. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Clinical success still has to convert into an NDA and approval; the 10-Q notes FDA/CNPV timing and acceptance are not assured even if the company intends to use RASolute 302 in a future filing. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
Momentum
77
Value
41
Sentiment
24
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $132.00 · Bull $165.00 · Bear $105.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $258.84
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d -16.5
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment24 · Δ7d -3.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Clinical success still has to convert into an NDA and approval; the 10-Q notes FDA/CNPV timing and acceptance are not assured even if the company intends to use RASolute 302 in a future filing. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
  • • Execution risk is elevated because Revolution is running or planning multiple registrational studies at once, including RASolute 303/304/305 and RASolve 301/308. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
  • • The bear case is that the earnings follow-up did not add a fresh upside unlock beyond the already known trial win, while Q1 net loss widened to $453.8 million and heavy spend across daraxonrasib and zoldonrasib leaves execution, timing and regulatory conversion risk high.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

RASolve 308 Phase 3 initiation in first-line KRAS G12D NSCLC [#10-Q-2026-05-06]

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
77
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.5
Δ21d
-18.1
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
24
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
+5.1
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 77.1 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 24.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$132.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$40.08B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
214.34M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-31.4
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-30.35
Rev YoY
-100.0%
EPS YoY
+132.5%
Gross Margin
-1420.9%
Op Margin
-88409.3%
Net Debt
-$1.6B
Current Ratio
11.38
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data