B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RTO
Rentokil InitialDNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
H1 organic revenue grew 3.6%, adjusted operating profit rose 6.6%, and free-cash-flow conversion reached 96%; international pest-control growth accelerated in Q2. If North American commercial execution improves, reinvestment could support a recovery.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
H1 included an additional $47 million termite-claims provision, with estimated 2026 claims cash outflow of $115 million–$125 million. [#IR-INTERIM-2026-07-30] Interim results
Momentum
15
Value
59
Sentiment
46
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $21.50 · Bull $26.00 · Bear $15.50Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.47
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d +0.7
Value59 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment46 · Δ7d -6.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • H1 included an additional $47 million termite-claims provision, with estimated 2026 claims cash outflow of $115 million–$125 million. [#IR-INTERIM-2026-07-30] Interim results
- • North American commercial retention and conversion may remain weak despite the planned residential/commercial separation. [#IR-INTERIM-2026-07-30] Interim results
- • Termite lead softness, weaker commercial growth and the withdrawal of the 2027 North American margin target weaken near-term visibility.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-22
October trading update tests North American demand
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
15
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+2.6
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
46
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.8
Δ21d
-23.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 14.7 / Value 58.7 / Sentiment 46.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$11.37B
Beta
1.06
Shares Out
502.93M
P/E (TTM)
49.3
P/S (TTM)
2.20
P/FCF (TTM)
41.23
Rev YoY
-1.7%
EPS YoY
-33.9%
Gross Margin
+13.9%
Op Margin
+13.9%
Net Debt
$3.81B
Current Ratio
1.06
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data