B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RTO
Rentokil InitialBNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The H1 print supports a constructive medium-term case: positive organic growth, 10.2% North American operating-profit growth, stronger international pest performance, improving retention, 96% free-cash-flow conversion, and leverage within target range. Execution of the North American reset could improve growth and margins over time.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
Declining commercial conversion and retention, including pressure from legacy Terminix contracts.
Momentum
10
Value
58
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $25.50 · Bull $32.50 · Bear $19.50Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $31.80
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d +2.7
Value58 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment80 · Δ7d +13.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-08.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Declining commercial conversion and retention, including pressure from legacy Terminix contracts.
- • Execution risk from a multi-year restructuring, simplification, and operating-model reset.
- • The North American recovery is uneven.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-31
H1 2026 results showed solid cash generation and maintained outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
10
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+5.8
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
80
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.7
Δ21d
+5.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 9.6 / Value 58.5 / Sentiment 79.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.82B
Beta
1.06
Shares Out
502.93M
P/E (TTM)
49.3
P/S (TTM)
2.20
P/FCF (TTM)
41.23
Rev YoY
-1.7%
EPS YoY
-33.9%
Gross Margin
+13.9%
Op Margin
+13.9%
Net Debt
$3.81B
Current Ratio
1.06
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data