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ROKU

RokuD
Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that the Q1 print confirmed a real operating leverage story: platform revenue accelerated, advertising and subscriptions both contributed, full-year outlook was raised, and multiple post-print target increases suggest analysts are moving toward a higher earnings and cash-flow frame rather than a pure user-growth story.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Although liquidity is solid, the rerating case depends on continued estimate upgrades because the stock is already trading near the packet's standing consensus target range.
Momentum
80
Value
48
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $132.00 · Bull $150.00 · Bear $95.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $160.11
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d +2.1
Value48 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment44 · Δ7d +4.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Although liquidity is solid, the rerating case depends on continued estimate upgrades because the stock is already trading near the packet's standing consensus target range.
  • • Devices revenue fell 16% YoY in Q1 and device gross margin remained negative, so hardware weakness can still dilute enthusiasm around stronger platform results.
  • • The bear case is that much of the good news arrived at once: the stock already reacted sharply, consensus target support in the packet remains only modestly above the May 1 close, and the more fragile device segment still faces memory-cost pressure, promotional pricing, and execution risk around OEM expansion.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-15

Post-earnings beat-and-raise still being digested

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
80
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
-1.6
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+6.7
Sentiment
44
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
+3.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 80.2 / Value 48.3 / Sentiment 43.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$132.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$23.5B
Beta
1.99
Shares Out
148.42M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
263.6
P/S (TTM)
3.73
P/FCF (TTM)
37.76
Rev YoY
+21.9%
EPS YoY
+1440.0%
Gross Margin
+45.5%
Op Margin
+5.2%
Net Debt
-$1.79B
Current Ratio
2.86
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data