B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
RLYB
RallybioFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
RLYB116 translates into a clear development path (partner or internal Phase 2 plan) and the company stabilizes clinical leadership—market re-rates toward analyst upside with multiplex expansion.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Clinical execution and timing risk for RLYB116
Momentum
88
Value
71
Sentiment
2
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.50 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $4.00Analysis 2026-04-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $1.00
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -
Value71 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment2 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Clinical execution and timing risk for RLYB116
- • Leadership/management turnover disrupting program timelines
- • Loss of CMO, slow follow-up development for RLYB116, or cash-runway pressure leads to program delays or dilution, driving a material downside to biotech peer multiples.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-05
Near-term leadership gap after Chief Medical Officer departure
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
71
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+30.1
Sentiment
2
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 88.0 / Value 71.2 / Sentiment 2.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$90.28M
Beta
-1.05
Shares Out
5.31M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-10.7
P/S (TTM)
42.56
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
3.80
Rev YoY
-100.0%
EPS YoY
-535.1%
Gross Margin
+93.3%
Op Margin
-2881.9%
Net Debt
-$54.56M
Current Ratio
27.26
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data