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RIOT

Riot PlatformsD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull read is that Q1 marked Riot's first meaningful proof point as a revenue-generating data-center operator: $33.2 million of Data Center revenue arrived immediately, AMD doubled contracted capacity to 50 MW, and available secondary post-print research appeared constructive, including a reported Cantor Fitzgerald target increase to $23 and a Compass Point Buy reiteration at $29.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Bitcoin mining economics remain exposed to bitcoin price, mining difficulty, and further increases in global network hash rate, which already pressured Q1 mining revenue and production mix.
Momentum
22
Value
35
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $21.00 · Bull $28.00 · Bear $13.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $32.79
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d +13.0
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -22.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -22.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Bitcoin mining economics remain exposed to bitcoin price, mining difficulty, and further increases in global network hash rate, which already pressured Q1 mining revenue and production mix.
  • • Customer concentration is rising around AMD in the early AI/HPC ramp, so any slowdown, redesign, or change in expansion appetite would matter disproportionately to the non-mining thesis.
  • • The bear read is that the upbeat AI/HPC narrative still sits on top of weak core mining economics and heavy non-operating volatility: Q1 net loss remained very large, bitcoin mining revenue fell year over year, and Riot funded growth partly by selling materially more bitcoin than it mined.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-31

Q1 earnings confirmed the first real data-center revenue step-up and a larger AMD footprint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
22
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.0
Δ21d
+6.6
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-4.5
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-22.9
Δ21d
-19.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 21.7 / Value 35.1 / Sentiment 58.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.52B
Beta
3.72
Shares Out
375.26M
P/E (TTM)
69.6
P/S (TTM)
9.49
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-6.74
Rev YoY
+13.9%
EPS YoY
-217.8%
Gross Margin
-28.3%
Op Margin
-74.2%
Net Debt
$556.97M
Current Ratio
1.59
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data