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RIO

Rio TintoC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes sustained strength in iron-ore and copper, improved margins from cost reductions, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation (buybacks/dividends) that push the ADR toward consensus highs.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
China demand slowdown for steel/ore
Momentum
74
Value
54
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $84.33 · Bull $113.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $101.36
Why
Momentum74 · Δ7d -5.0
Value54 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +1.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • China demand slowdown for steel/ore
  • • Commodity-price collapse (iron ore, copper)
  • • Bear case assumes a China demand slowdown or commodity-price shock, +/− operational setbacks, or higher-than-expected decarbonization capex that compresses multiples and earnings toward the analyst low.

Catalyst clock

2026-02-19

FY2025 earnings release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
74
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.0
Δ21d
+14.0
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+7.9
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-3.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 74.3 / Value 53.9 / Sentiment 52.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$113.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$84.33
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$165.55B
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
1.25B
P/E (TTM)
13.1
P/S (TTM)
2.61
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-279.44
Rev YoY
+0.3%
EPS YoY
-22.3%
Gross Margin
+26.7%
Op Margin
+26.7%
Net Debt
$14.07B
Current Ratio
1.42
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data