RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

RIO

Rio TintoC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Bull case assumes sustained strength in iron-ore and copper, improved margins from cost reductions, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation (buybacks/dividends) that push the ADR toward consensus highs.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.8.
What can break
China demand slowdown for steel/ore
Momentum
33
Value
54
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $84.33 · Bull $113.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $98.64
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d -16.6
Value54 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +6.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • China demand slowdown for steel/ore
  • • Commodity-price collapse (iron ore, copper)
  • • Bear case assumes a China demand slowdown or commodity-price shock, +/− operational setbacks, or higher-than-expected decarbonization capex that compresses multiples and earnings toward the analyst low.

Catalyst clock

2026-02-19

FY2025 earnings release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
33
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.6
Δ21d
-5.4
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.8
Δ21d
+5.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 33.1 / Value 54.4 / Sentiment 59.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$113.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$84.33
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$142.82B
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
1.25B
P/E (TTM)
13.1
P/S (TTM)
2.61
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-241.07
Rev YoY
+0.3%
EPS YoY
-22.3%
Gross Margin
+26.7%
Op Margin
+26.7%
Net Debt
$14.07B
Current Ratio
1.42
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data