B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
RGTI
Rigetti ComputingCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Successful commercial ramp (telecom contract scaling + additional cloud customers) plus a widely accepted technical benchmark demonstrating near-term advantage drives rapid revenue growth and multiple expansion toward the bull target within ~12 months [Rigetti telecom PR; https://investors.rigetti.com/news-releases/news-release-details/2025/Rigetti-Computing-Announces-Multi-Year-Cloud-Contract-with-Major-Telecom/default.aspx].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Execution delays on deployments, weaker-than-expected revenue conversion, or follow‑through failure on technical claims lead to missed guidance and multiple compression toward the bear target (market already priced some risk after the Q3 release) [Rigetti Q3 2025 press release; https://investors.rigetti.com/news-releases/news-release-details/2025/Rigetti-Computing-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results/default.aspx] [EDGAR 10-Q accession 0001193125-25-292123; https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001821297/000119312525292123/d390454d10q.htm].
Momentum
26
Value
35
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $32.00 · Bull $45.00 · Bear $15.00Analysis 2025-12-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-12-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.55
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d +14.8
Value35 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment77 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution delays on deployments, weaker-than-expected revenue conversion, or follow‑through failure on technical claims lead to missed guidance and multiple compression toward the bear target (market already priced some risk after the Q3 release) [Rigetti Q3 2025 press release; https://investors.rigetti.com/news-releases/news-release-details/2025/Rigetti-Computing-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results/default.aspx] [EDGAR 10-Q accession 0001193125-25-292123; https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001821297/000119312525292123/d390454d10q.htm].
- • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Q3 2025 earnings / 10-Q (already released)
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
26
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.8
Δ21d
-16.1
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 25.7 / Value 34.5 / Sentiment 77.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-12-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.23B
Beta
1.71
Shares Out
333.77M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-26.7
P/S (TTM)
1101.41
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-70.61
Rev YoY
+185.3%
EPS YoY
+18.7%
Gross Margin
-39.8%
Op Margin
-727.6%
Net Debt
-$436.34M
Current Ratio
3.94
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data