B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$300.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RGLD
Royal GoldCNasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull read is that Royal Gold has turned its 2025 transactions into visible Q1 operating leverage: record revenue, cash flow and earnings, higher GEOs, strong EBITDA margin, and meaningful debt reduction, with buyback authorization adding optional support if valuation remains discounted to management's intrinsic-value view.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Interest expense rose materially year over year because of higher average revolver borrowings, so slower debt paydown or new acquisitions could keep financial drag elevated.
Momentum
91
Value
44
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $245.00 · Bull $300.00 · Bear $205.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $302.67
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d -4.0
Value44 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +2.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Interest expense rose materially year over year because of higher average revolver borrowings, so slower debt paydown or new acquisitions could keep financial drag elevated.
- • Q1 results benefited from very strong realized metal prices and new-asset contributions; weaker gold, silver or copper prices would pressure cash generation and valuation support.
- • The bear read is that even with record results, the market did not get a clean upside surprise signal, management did not present a broad guidance raise in the earnings release, and higher G&A, DD&A and interest expense show the cost of the larger portfolio and debt-funded expansion.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Post-earnings reset after record Q1 with added capital-allocation tools
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.0
Δ21d
+15.8
Value
44
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+2.9
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
-14.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 90.7 / Value 43.7 / Sentiment 59.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$20.05B
Beta
0.49
Shares Out
84.73M
P/E (TTM)
31.4
P/S (TTM)
22.56
P/FCF (TTM)
139.39
Rev YoY
+114.9%
EPS YoY
+38.2%
Gross Margin
+66.8%
Op Margin
+63.0%
Net Debt
$698.93M
Current Ratio
2.92
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data