B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RDN
Radian GroupCNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings read-through is that Radian's first full quarter after the Inigo close already showed better-than-expected operating earnings power: the company reported $466.3 million of revenue and $1.27 adjusted EPS, while secondary coverage indicated both revenue and adjusted EPS beat consensus. Mortgage credit remained benign, PMIERs excess capital stayed sizable, and capital return stayed active.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
Holding-company liquidity fell to $391 million at March 31, 2026 after funding the Inigo deal, and remaining revolver repayment during 2026 still needs clean execution [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Momentum
30
Value
61
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $36.00 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.80
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d +4.4
Value61 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment64 · Δ7d -0.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Holding-company liquidity fell to $391 million at March 31, 2026 after funding the Inigo deal, and remaining revolver repayment during 2026 still needs clean execution [#8-K-2026-05-07].
- • Mortgage credit earnings were helped by favorable reserve development and better cure behavior; weaker home prices, unemployment, or default trends could reverse that tailwind.
- • The cautious read-through is that the cleaner operating beat sits beside lower year-over-year GAAP continuing EPS, a drop in holding-company liquidity to $391 million, a remaining 2026 revolver repayment plan, and explicit 10-Q language about softening specialty pricing.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-04
June 4 investor day is the next test of the Inigo integration narrative
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
30
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.4
Δ21d
-4.6
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+1.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 30.5 / Value 60.8 / Sentiment 64.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.9B
Beta
0.81
Shares Out
132.3M
P/E (TTM)
8.9
P/S (TTM)
3.92
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
4.09
Rev YoY
+92.6%
EPS YoY
-17.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+51.1%
Net Debt
$1.11B
Current Ratio
1.13
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data