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RCAT

Red CatB
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Revenue and gross margin are scaling rapidly, the company reported $325.6 million of cash, and funded orders or advancement across air and maritime programs could validate the broader autonomy platform. Successful second-half conversion toward the reaffirmed revenue target would materially improve credibility.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Multiple directors and the CEO reported open-market sales during June-August 2026; these transactions do not establish operating weakness but warrant monitoring. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-01] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-19] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-13]
Momentum
3
Value
34
Sentiment
100
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.50 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $4.00Analysis 2026-09-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.00
Why
Momentum3 · Δ7d -0.1
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment100 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Multiple directors and the CEO reported open-market sales during June-August 2026; these transactions do not establish operating weakness but warrant monitoring. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-01] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-19] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-13]
  • • Only $35.7 million of first-half revenue was reported against the reaffirmed $150 million-$180 million full-year target, creating substantial delivery and timing risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • The required second-half ramp is steep, Q2 operating loss was $38.6 million, six-month operating cash use was $78.7 million, and inventory rose to $84.8 million.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Drone Dominance progression could validate a significant procurement opportunity

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
3
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.3
Value
34
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
100
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+16.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 3.4 / Value 34.1 / Sentiment 100.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$743.72M
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
152.71M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6.7
P/S (TTM)
86.55
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.74
Rev YoY
+527.3%
EPS YoY
+77.2%
Gross Margin
+9.8%
Op Margin
-150.1%
Net Debt
-$149.43M
Current Ratio
14.86
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data