B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RCAT
Red CatBNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 demonstrated rapid revenue scaling, sequential gross-margin improvement, substantial liquidity, and continued progress across defense, maritime, and autonomy programs. Reaffirmation of the $150-$180 million revenue target supports the medium-term growth case.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Inventory and prepaid inventory reached $84.8 million at June 30, 2026 versus $30.4 million at December 31, 2025, increasing the importance of shipment and working-capital conversion. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
26
Value
34
Sentiment
87
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $13.50 · Bear $6.20Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.00
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d -47.3
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment87 · Δ7d -0.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Inventory and prepaid inventory reached $84.8 million at June 30, 2026 versus $30.4 million at December 31, 2025, increasing the importance of shipment and working-capital conversion. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • No trustworthy post-print analyst revision, target-change, or detailed EPS-surprise set is available, limiting confidence in the immediate earnings interpretation.
- • The reported $20.2 million revenue was below the stored Zacks preview consensus of $22.31 million, actual EPS was not available in the company release, and no post-print analyst revisions, rating changes, or target changes are available.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 growth and margin expansion reset the operating baseline
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
26
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-47.3
Δ21d
-10.5
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
87
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+23.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 25.6 / Value 34.2 / Sentiment 87.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.59B
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
152.71M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-14.3
P/S (TTM)
86.55
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-8.02
Rev YoY
+527.3%
EPS YoY
+77.2%
Gross Margin
+9.8%
Op Margin
-150.1%
Net Debt
-$149.43M
Current Ratio
14.86
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data