B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$25.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RARE
Ultragenyx PharmaceuticalBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Ultragenyx retains a commercial revenue base, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and a potential path to profitability in 2027. Favorable remaining regulatory read-through and disciplined expense reductions could stabilize the shares.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
2026 revenue guidance excludes potential new product launches, increasing sensitivity to regulatory timing. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Momentum
2
Value
41
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $17.00 · Bull $25.70 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $25.74
Why
Momentum2 · Δ7d -7.0
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d +24.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +24.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 revenue guidance excludes potential new product launches, increasing sensitivity to regulatory timing. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • DTX-401 and UX-111 regulatory decision status is incomplete in the packet.
- • The GTX-102 failure removes a major pipeline value driver, while management has not yet decided the program's disposition and plans significant expense reductions.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-02
Aspire Phase 3 failure resets pipeline value
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
2
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-7.0
Δ21d
-12.8
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+24.2
Δ21d
+18.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 2.0 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 84.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.58B
Beta
0.16
Shares Out
98.59M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.5
P/S (TTM)
3.54
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.37
Rev YoY
+28.5%
EPS YoY
-22.7%
Gross Margin
+78.5%
Op Margin
-73.8%
Net Debt
$559M
Current Ratio
1.73
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data