B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$25.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RARE
Ultragenyx PharmaceuticalDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Ultragenyx retains a commercial revenue base, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and a potential path to profitability in 2027. Favorable remaining regulatory read-through and disciplined expense reductions could stabilize the shares.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.1.
What can break
2026 revenue guidance excludes potential new product launches, increasing sensitivity to regulatory timing. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Momentum
15
Value
41
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $17.00 · Bull $25.70 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $26.25
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d +3.7
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -9.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 revenue guidance excludes potential new product launches, increasing sensitivity to regulatory timing. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • DTX-401 and UX-111 regulatory decision status is incomplete in the packet.
- • The GTX-102 failure removes a major pipeline value driver, while management has not yet decided the program's disposition and plans significant expense reductions.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-02
Aspire Phase 3 failure resets pipeline value
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
15
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
+9.4
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.1
Δ21d
-11.6
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 14.8 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 63.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.54B
Beta
0.16
Shares Out
98.59M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.7
P/S (TTM)
3.54
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.22
Rev YoY
+28.5%
EPS YoY
-22.7%
Gross Margin
+78.5%
Op Margin
-73.8%
Net Debt
$559M
Current Ratio
1.73
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data