B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RAPP
Rapport TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The October 20 placebo-controlled bipolar-mania Phase 2 result adds a second potential indication to an already enrolling focal-onset-seizure Phase 3 program. Rapport reported $436.1 million of cash, equivalents and short-term investments at June 30, 2026 and expected funding into H2 2029 [#8-K-2026-10-20] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -24.3.
What can break
FDA feedback could require changes to the proposed bipolar-mania registrational program or delay its planned H2 2027 start [#8-K-2026-10-20].
Momentum
6
Value
41
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $28.00 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $15.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $69.00
Why
Momentum6 · Δ7d +0.2
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment68 · Δ7d -24.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -24.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FDA feedback could require changes to the proposed bipolar-mania registrational program or delay its planned H2 2027 start [#8-K-2026-10-20].
- • Multiple planned Phase 3 studies may raise R&D spending and operational complexity; the H2 2029 runway is a company expectation based on June 30, 2026 liquidity, not a financing guarantee [#8-K-2026-10-20].
- • The bipolar-mania primary-endpoint p-value was 0.045, and treatment discontinuation was 24.6% on RAP-219 versus 11.8% on placebo.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Focal-onset-seizure extension safety data
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
6
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-1.9
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
68
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-24.3
Δ21d
-16.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 5.9 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 67.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.24B
Beta
-
Shares Out
47.98M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-9.1
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-12.08
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+58.1%
Gross Margin
+95.2%
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$479.16M
Current Ratio
15.72
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data