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RAIL

FreightCar AmericaA
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The removed retrofit order is specific to one customer; management says no other backlog orders are affected. A lower-cost footprint, aftermarket growth, and conversion of the remaining $284.5 million backlog could support recovery in 2027 [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +17.0.
What can break
Fiscal 2026 guidance was reduced to 3,100–3,300 deliveries, $370 million–$410 million revenue, and $15 million–$19 million adjusted EBITDA [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19].
Momentum
6
Value
69
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.70 · Bull $8.50 · Bear $3.25Analysis 2026-10-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.00
Why
Momentum6 · Δ7d -14.6
Value69 · Δ7d +3.9
Sentiment85 · Δ7d +17.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +17.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fiscal 2026 guidance was reduced to 3,100–3,300 deliveries, $370 million–$410 million revenue, and $15 million–$19 million adjusted EBITDA [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19].
  • • One customer's inability to meet its contract led to removal of 1,285 railcars from backlog [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19].
  • • The setback reverses much of the earlier backlog thesis.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-19

Tank-car retrofit order removed from backlog

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
6
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.6
Δ21d
-24.5
Value
69
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+5.5
Sentiment
85
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+17.0
Δ21d
+28.1
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 5.8 / Value 68.8 / Sentiment 85.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-20. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$3.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$138.71M
Beta
1.77
Shares Out
32.79M
P/E (TTM)
4.0
P/S (TTM)
0.41
P/FCF (TTM)
7.66
Rev YoY
-4.6%
EPS YoY
-378.3%
Gross Margin
+11.8%
Op Margin
+3.0%
Net Debt
$88.07M
Current Ratio
1.81
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data