B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
QGEN
QIAGENDNYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive read is that QIAGEN preserved adjusted EPS delivery in Q1 2026 despite weaker CER sales, management framed QuantiFERON weakness as a 2026 rebasing rather than a long-term impairment, and Baird upgraded the shares to Buy/Outperform on April 29, 2026 while cutting its target to $43, suggesting some investors may view the selloff as valuation reset rather than franchise break.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
QIAGEN's own forward-looking risk language flags product-development success, tariffs, currency, regulatory processes, customer funding variability, reimbursement/public-health funding and competition as ongoing risks to diagnostics and life-science growth [#6K-2026-04-27].
Momentum
93
Value
63
Sentiment
21
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $35.00 · Bull $39.00 · Bear $29.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $47.89
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d +7.6
Value63 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment21 · Δ7d -5.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • QIAGEN's own forward-looking risk language flags product-development success, tariffs, currency, regulatory processes, customer funding variability, reimbursement/public-health funding and competition as ongoing risks to diagnostics and life-science growth [#6K-2026-04-27].
- • QuantiFERON sales declined 5% CER in Q1 2026, mainly due to a significant decline in immigration testing demand in the United States and Middle East, and management now expects 2026 QuantiFERON sales to be unchanged at CER versus 2025 sales of $503 million [#6K-2026-04-27].
- • The bearish read is that the delayed post-print revision signal is still mixed-to-negative: JPMorgan reportedly cut its target to $45 from $60 while keeping Overweight, Citigroup cut to $38 from $55 while maintaining Hold, Barclays cut to $38 from $44 while maintaining Equal Weight, and the company itself cited lower immigration testing, cautious U.S.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-01
Post-earnings reset must stabilize after FY2026 cut [#6K-2026-04-27]
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
93
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.6
Δ21d
+22.2
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
21
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.6
Δ21d
-14.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 92.8 / Value 62.8 / Sentiment 21.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$10.38B
Beta
0.28
Shares Out
206.08M
P/E (TTM)
24.7
P/S (TTM)
4.77
P/FCF (TTM)
20.91
Rev YoY
+0.3%
EPS YoY
+7.1%
Gross Margin
+61.8%
Op Margin
+24.6%
Net Debt
$713.45M
Current Ratio
2.85
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data