B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PUMP
ProPetroBNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 was a weather-distorted trough, Q2 fleet activity recovers, and PROPWR begins to convert a large ordered/backlog position into visible earnings in 2H26, giving PUMP a cleaner hybrid frac-plus-power growth narrative.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
What can break
2026 capital expenditures were raised sharply to $540 million-$610 million incurred, including roughly $400 million-$450 million for PROPWR, increasing dependence on financing and deployment execution.
Momentum
12
Value
43
Sentiment
79
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.00 · Bull $19.00 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.45
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d +3.7
Value43 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment79 · Δ7d -1.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 capital expenditures were raised sharply to $540 million-$610 million incurred, including roughly $400 million-$450 million for PROPWR, increasing dependence on financing and deployment execution.
- • Management still flags exposure to oil-price volatility, power-demand uncertainty, and risks tied to building out a newer service line, so forward visibility remains mixed rather than fully de-risked.
- • The bear case is that the core completions business remains cyclical and margin-thin while PROPWR absorbs far more capital than near-term earnings, forcing repeated financing actions and leaving valuation dependent on a still-unproven scale-up.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Convertible notes financing improves funding flexibility but adds dilution and execution overhang
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
+2.3
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-5.6
Sentiment
79
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
+6.2
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 11.6 / Value 43.0 / Sentiment 79.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.57B
Beta
0.77
Shares Out
122.82M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
1619.0
P/S (TTM)
0.79
P/FCF (TTM)
26.66
Rev YoY
-6.2%
EPS YoY
-4.1%
Gross Margin
+8.3%
Op Margin
-0.9%
Net Debt
$121.89M
Current Ratio
4.09
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data