B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$14.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PUBM
PubMaticFNasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q1 results beat guidance, the balance sheet remains net-cash, buybacks continue, and AgenticOS is showing real early traction. If emerging revenues keep scaling, the market could reward a better growth mix.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA margin fell sharply versus the prior year, so profitability is still volatile.
Momentum
95
Value
52
Sentiment
25
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.61 · Bull $14.75 · Bear $7.75Analysis 2026-05-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.27
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d -0.1
Value52 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment25 · Δ7d +7.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted EBITDA margin fell sharply versus the prior year, so profitability is still volatile.
- • AgenticOS and emerging revenues are promising but early, with monetization still unproven at scale.
- • Revenue was still down year over year and adjusted EBITDA margin compressed versus last year, while customer concentration remains a live issue.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-07
Q1 beat and cash/buyback support the near-term setup
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.1
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
25
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.8
Δ21d
+4.1
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 95.0 / Value 51.8 / Sentiment 25.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$11.61
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$786.65M
Beta
1.58
Shares Out
45.55M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-56.1
P/S (TTM)
1.41
P/FCF (TTM)
8.43
Rev YoY
+10.5%
EPS YoY
-76.4%
Gross Margin
+64.4%
Op Margin
-4.7%
Net Debt
-$101.31M
Current Ratio
1.27
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data