B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PTON
Peloton InteractiveANasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
FY26 profitability and free cash flow show a stronger cost structure, while the October treadmill launch could expand Peloton's addressable customer base. UBS reiterated Buy and a $10 target after the launch, citing lower price and smaller footprint.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
What can break
FY27 revenue guidance implies contraction despite projected adjusted EBITDA growth, making cost-led improvement vulnerable if demand weakens. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
70
Value
62
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.30 · Bull $7.50 · Bear $3.40Analysis 2026-09-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.83
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d +7.8
Value62 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -5.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FY27 revenue guidance implies contraction despite projected adjusted EBITDA growth, making cost-led improvement vulnerable if demand weakens. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • Peloton reported $1.3 billion of total debt at FY26 year-end despite lower net debt. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • FY27 revenue guidance of $2.3–2.4 billion implies a 3.9% year-over-year decline at the midpoint, and Q1 guidance still calls for substantial subscription losses.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29
Lower-priced Tread Flex reaches North America [#PR-2026-09-22-TREAD]
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
70
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.8
Δ21d
+48.1
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.1
Δ21d
-20.3
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 69.9 / Value 62.5 / Sentiment 57.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$5.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$2.34B
Beta
2.42
Shares Out
445.6M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
35.3
P/S (TTM)
1.06
P/FCF (TTM)
6.83
Rev YoY
+0.1%
EPS YoY
+122.2%
Gross Margin
+51.3%
Op Margin
+8.7%
Net Debt
$502.7M
Current Ratio
2.84
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data