B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PTGX
Protagonist TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest current pro-thesis evidence is primary-source based: ICOTYDE is now approved and monetizable, while the rusfertide opt-out election reduces Protagonist's U.S. launch burden and increases milestone-plus-royalty leverage if approval arrives in Q3 2026 [#PR-2026-03-18] [#PR-2026-04-28].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
ICOTYDE is approved, but royalty and milestone realization still depends on Johnson & Johnson launch execution and additional indication progress.
Momentum
76
Value
55
Sentiment
28
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $107.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $72.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $178.20
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -16.0
Value55 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment28 · Δ7d -5.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ICOTYDE is approved, but royalty and milestone realization still depends on Johnson & Johnson launch execution and additional indication progress.
- • Rusfertide approval remains the dominant binary driver; any FDA delay, label issue, or rejection would likely reset the stock materially lower.
- • This remains a concentrated, binary biotech story.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Rusfertide opt-out election materially changes near-term cash and launch-risk profile
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.0
Δ21d
-17.6
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
28
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.7
Δ21d
-2.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 75.7 / Value 55.3 / Sentiment 28.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$107.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$8.96B
Beta
2.27
Shares Out
64.71M
P/E (TTM)
133.3
P/S (TTM)
25.15
P/FCF (TTM)
82.60
Rev YoY
+3749.2%
EPS YoY
-518.9%
Gross Margin
+99.5%
Op Margin
+20.7%
Net Debt
-$557.04M
Current Ratio
21.71
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data