B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PTGX
Protagonist TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest current pro-thesis evidence is primary-source based: ICOTYDE is now approved and monetizable, while the rusfertide opt-out election reduces Protagonist's U.S. launch burden and increases milestone-plus-royalty leverage if approval arrives in Q3 2026 [#PR-2026-03-18] [#PR-2026-04-28].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.
What can break
ICOTYDE is approved, but royalty and milestone realization still depends on Johnson & Johnson launch execution and additional indication progress.
Momentum
77
Value
56
Sentiment
28
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $107.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $72.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $174.57
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d +0.3
Value56 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment28 · Δ7d +4.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ICOTYDE is approved, but royalty and milestone realization still depends on Johnson & Johnson launch execution and additional indication progress.
- • Rusfertide approval remains the dominant binary driver; any FDA delay, label issue, or rejection would likely reset the stock materially lower.
- • This remains a concentrated, binary biotech story.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Rusfertide opt-out election materially changes near-term cash and launch-risk profile
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-14.1
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+8.2
Sentiment
28
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
+8.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 77.4 / Value 56.5 / Sentiment 28.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$107.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.26B
Beta
2.27
Shares Out
64.71M
P/E (TTM)
133.3
P/S (TTM)
25.15
P/FCF (TTM)
82.60
Rev YoY
+3749.2%
EPS YoY
-518.9%
Gross Margin
+99.5%
Op Margin
+20.7%
Net Debt
-$557.04M
Current Ratio
21.71
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data