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PSX

Phillips 66D
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that PSX produced a surprise profit despite $839 million of mark-to-market hedge losses, while utilization stayed high and newly recognized capacity expansions, Lindsey integration, and a 7% dividend increase support a stronger normalized earnings base than the headline quarter alone suggests. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
14 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
$839 million of first-quarter mark-to-market pre-tax losses on short derivative hedges show how volatile commodity swings can obscure underlying earnings power. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
Momentum
92
Value
55
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
14 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $166.00 · Bull $182.00 · Bear $150.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $242.28
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d +2.4
Value55 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment39 · Δ7d +1.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 14 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • $839 million of first-quarter mark-to-market pre-tax losses on short derivative hedges show how volatile commodity swings can obscure underlying earnings power. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
  • • Cash flow from operations was negative $2.264 billion in Q1, even though cash flow excluding working capital was positive, so working-capital swings remain a real balance-sheet and sentiment risk. [#8-K-2026-04-29]
  • • The bear case is that adjusted EPS was still only $0.49, refining and marketing results were helped by factors that can reverse, operating cash flow was negative because of working-capital pressure, debt climbed to $27.1 billion, and planned turnarounds plus Los Angeles refinery redevelopment costs keep execution risk elevated.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-06

Q1 earnings beat plus 5% same-day stock reaction resets the near-term tape

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
92
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
+1.4
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+15.1
Sentiment
39
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-3.0
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 91.6 / Value 55.0 / Sentiment 39.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$182.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$166.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$95.98B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
399.02M
P/E (TTM)
38.0
P/S (TTM)
0.43
P/FCF (TTM)
125.34
Rev YoY
+53.0%
EPS YoY
+345.0%
Gross Margin
+7.9%
Op Margin
+5.9%
Net Debt
$20.47B
Current Ratio
1.32
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data