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PRAA

PRA GroupB
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 results showed improving collections, EBITDA growth, record-level ERC, continued portfolio investment, and meaningful European recovery upside. The repurchase authorization and PRA 3.0 execution could support a rerating from the $19.79 anchor price.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
Cost reductions and technology modernization may create execution risk before benefits are realized.
Momentum
82
Value
40
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $29.00 · Bear $16.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $26.00
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d -3.3
Value40 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment67 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cost reductions and technology modernization may create execution risk before benefits are realized.
  • • Debt-collection volumes, consumer repayment behavior, portfolio pricing, and regulatory requirements may weaken.
  • • The European ERC increase is an estimate reset rather than immediate cash realization, and management expects more moderate recovery changes over time.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-14

Q2 operating momentum supports post-print digestion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
82
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
-3.1
Value
40
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
67
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-14.3
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 81.7 / Value 39.9 / Sentiment 67.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$718.14M
Beta
1.30
Shares Out
37.65M
P/E (TTM)
6.3
P/S (TTM)
0.59
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-19.44
Rev YoY
+12.9%
EPS YoY
+40.5%
Gross Margin
+66.0%
Op Margin
+37.2%
Net Debt
$3.73B
Current Ratio
27.91
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data