B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
POWW
OutdoorDNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
If June 22 results show Q3-style traction carrying forward, the setup is a low-price, low-expectation marketplace turnaround with prior evidence of revenue growth, stable high gross margin, cash generation, and cost discipline from GunBroker-focused operations [#SEC-8K-2026-02-09].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
POWW's latest confirmed operating strength comes from the February 9, 2026 release; if Q4 breaks the recent profitability and cash-generation trend, downside could be sharp from a thin-information base [#SEC-8K-2026-02-09].
Momentum
81
Value
55
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.80 · Bull $2.65 · Bear $1.25Analysis 2026-06-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $3.50
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d -
Value55 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • POWW's latest confirmed operating strength comes from the February 9, 2026 release; if Q4 breaks the recent profitability and cash-generation trend, downside could be sharp from a thin-information base [#SEC-8K-2026-02-09].
- • Peer read-through is weak because available comps are broad small-cap retail/distribution names rather than close firearms-marketplace equivalents.
- • This remains a low-coverage monitoring name because the scheduled follow-up run arrived before the confirmed earnings release date; there are no post-print analyst revisions yet, no new annual filing as of June 18, 2026, and the prior legal settlement consumed $4.4 million of cash [#SEC-8K-2026-02-23] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-06-08].
Catalyst clock
2026-06-22
Fiscal 2026 Q4/FY2026 results are scheduled for June 22, 2026
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
81
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+12.5
Sentiment
44
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 80.8 / Value 54.9 / Sentiment 43.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$257.55M
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
116.02M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-39.4
P/S (TTM)
3.89
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
32.60
Rev YoY
+22.1%
EPS YoY
-136.5%
Gross Margin
+59.4%
Op Margin
+10.4%
Net Debt
-$56.93M
Current Ratio
4.74
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data