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PLTR

PalantirD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes continued high-margin revenue growth from government and commercial deals, successful upsells across large accounts, and multiple expansion as market adoption increases; under this view PLTR could reach the analyst high ($255) driven by accelerated ARR and improved margins [#SERP-8].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Concentration in government contracts and related policy/regulatory risk
Momentum
85
Value
46
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $189.89 · Bull $255.00 · Bear $50.00Analysis 2026-01-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $208.93
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d +2.9
Value46 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment43 · Δ7d -5.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Concentration in government contracts and related policy/regulatory risk
  • • Contract timing and renewal risk
  • • Bear case centers on slower commercial adoption, contract timing and renewal risk, or margin pressure from scaling sales/engineering costs; under this scenario the market could re-rate toward the consensus low (~$50) if growth visibility deteriorates or large deals slip [#SERP-2].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-01

Q4 / Full‑Year 2025 earnings release (estimated)

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
85
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
+0.6
Value
46
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
43
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.3
Δ21d
-10.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 85.1 / Value 46.3 / Sentiment 43.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$255.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$189.89
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$472.8B
Beta
1.64
Shares Out
2.4B
P/E (TTM)
407.1
P/S (TTM)
106.42
P/FCF (TTM)
231.15
Rev YoY
+92.8%
EPS YoY
+221.6%
Gross Margin
+84.8%
Op Margin
+42.8%
Net Debt
-$6.95B
Current Ratio
7.23
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data