B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$24.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PLGO
Pelagos Insurance CapitalCNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that PLGO still screens as a discount-to-book capital return story: year-end diluted book value per share was $24.61 versus the packet anchor price of $20.35, 2025 gross premiums written reached $4.7 billion, and management has been buying back stock below book while keeping stable A/A-/A3 operating ratings [#20F-2025] [#PR-2026-03-02].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
What can break
Catastrophe, climate, and large-loss volatility can still overwhelm modeled protection and create earnings swings [#20F-2025].
Momentum
58
Value
58
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $21.50 · Bull $24.50 · Bear $17.50Analysis 2026-05-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $25.39
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d +10.0
Value58 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +0.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Catastrophe, climate, and large-loss volatility can still overwhelm modeled protection and create earnings swings [#20F-2025].
- • Near-term conviction is capped because the next major operating datapoint is the Q1 2026 release scheduled for May 13, 2026 after market close [#PR-2026-04-09].
- • The bear case is that forward visibility remains limited until the May 13, 2026 earnings release, and specialty insurance earnings can change quickly with catastrophe activity, reserve development, reinsurance costs, rating actions, or operational dependence on The Fidelis Partnership and other third parties [#20F-2025].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-13
Q1 2026 results are due after market close on May 13, with call on May 14
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
58
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.0
Δ21d
+17.8
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-5.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 58.0 / Value 58.3 / Sentiment 52.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-13. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.01B
Beta
-
Shares Out
85.5M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
11.1
P/S (TTM)
0.78
P/FCF (TTM)
3.54
Rev YoY
+7.0%
EPS YoY
+189.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+21.1%
Net Debt
-$392M
Current Ratio
1.42
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data