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PLGO

Pelagos Insurance CapitalC
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that PLGO still screens as a discount-to-book capital return story: year-end diluted book value per share was $24.61 versus the packet anchor price of $20.35, 2025 gross premiums written reached $4.7 billion, and management has been buying back stock below book while keeping stable A/A-/A3 operating ratings [#20F-2025] [#PR-2026-03-02].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
Catastrophe, climate, and large-loss volatility can still overwhelm modeled protection and create earnings swings [#20F-2025].
Momentum
76
Value
56
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $21.50 · Bull $24.50 · Bear $17.50Analysis 2026-05-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $25.17
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -2.0
Value56 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -4.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Catastrophe, climate, and large-loss volatility can still overwhelm modeled protection and create earnings swings [#20F-2025].
  • • Near-term conviction is capped because the next major operating datapoint is the Q1 2026 release scheduled for May 13, 2026 after market close [#PR-2026-04-09].
  • • The bear case is that forward visibility remains limited until the May 13, 2026 earnings release, and specialty insurance earnings can change quickly with catastrophe activity, reserve development, reinsurance costs, rating actions, or operational dependence on The Fidelis Partnership and other third parties [#20F-2025].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-13

Q1 2026 results are due after market close on May 13, with call on May 14

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.0
Δ21d
+6.8
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
-12.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 76.3 / Value 56.3 / Sentiment 44.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$24.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$2.13B
Beta
-
Shares Out
82.73M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
12.1
P/S (TTM)
0.78
P/FCF (TTM)
3.54
Rev YoY
+7.0%
EPS YoY
+189.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+21.1%
Net Debt
-$392M
Current Ratio
1.42
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data