B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PII
PolarisDNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 sales rose 9% to $2.023 billion, ORV retail rose 5%, and the company raised its sales and EPS outlook. Continued share gains and successful dealer sell-through could support a recovery.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.5.
What can break
Citi and UBS lowered targets in September while retaining Neutral ratings.
Momentum
18
Value
42
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $58.00 · Bull $70.00 · Bear $41.00Analysis 2026-09-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $65.57
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d +2.8
Value42 · Δ7d -0.9
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -8.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Citi and UBS lowered targets in September while retaining Neutral ratings.
- • Dealer shipments of new models may not translate into retail sell-through or favorable mix.
- • The $0.96 tariff-refund contribution accounts for much of the $1.40 midpoint increase in adjusted EPS guidance.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-30
2027 off-road lineup reaches dealers
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
+10.4
Value
42
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.5
Δ21d
-15.6
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 17.5 / Value 42.0 / Sentiment 56.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$3.3B
Beta
1.19
Shares Out
56.9M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-7.1
P/S (TTM)
0.54
P/FCF (TTM)
8.74
Rev YoY
+9.2%
EPS YoY
-231.2%
Gross Margin
+19.6%
Op Margin
+1.8%
Net Debt
$1.53B
Current Ratio
1.20
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data