B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$137.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PHM
PulteGroupBNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q3 backlog increased in both units and value, while PulteGroup ended the quarter with $1.4 billion in cash and repurchased $350 million of shares. Its move-up and active-adult mix could support margins if demand stabilizes.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.9.
What can break
Management cited higher mortgage rates, inflation and affordability pressure as causes of weaker homebuying demand. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
Momentum
36
Value
61
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $121.00 · Bull $137.00 · Bear $102.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $132.88
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d -3.6
Value61 · Δ7d -1.9
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -11.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Management cited higher mortgage rates, inflation and affordability pressure as causes of weaker homebuying demand. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
- • Orders declined 6% despite a 7% increase in average community count, raising the risk of further incentives or slower backlog conversion. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
- • The EPS miss, falling orders and closings, 140-basis-point year-over-year gross-margin decline, and approximately 70 basis points of land impairments point to affordability and execution pressure.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-30
Post-earnings repricing after weaker Q3
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
36
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.6
Δ21d
+0.3
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.4
Δ21d
-16.8
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 36.2 / Value 61.1 / Sentiment 53.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$121.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$102.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$22.33B
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
184.09M
P/E (TTM)
9.2
P/S (TTM)
1.33
P/FCF (TTM)
16.97
Rev YoY
-9.6%
EPS YoY
-18.3%
Gross Margin
+25.0%
Op Margin
+15.6%
Net Debt
$287.9M
Current Ratio
5.28
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data