B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PHM
PulteGroupANYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The earnings beat, 6% order growth, sequential margin improvement, disciplined land strategy, buybacks and low leverage support a constructive medium-term case. Management also reaffirmed its full-year framework on the earnings call.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.4.
What can break
Affordability pressure, volatile mortgage rates and competitive incentives could further weaken demand and margins.
Momentum
50
Value
61
Sentiment
81
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $140.00 · Bull $150.00 · Bear $112.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $141.14
Why
Momentum50 · Δ7d -7.8
Value61 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment81 · Δ7d +10.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Affordability pressure, volatile mortgage rates and competitive incentives could further weaken demand and margins.
- • Analyst targets are dispersed and the latest post-print ratings are not uniformly bullish; social, options, short-interest and employee-sentiment data are unavailable.
- • Revenue, closings, average selling price and gross margin declined year over year, while SG&A deleveraged.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-22
Q2 earnings beat with mixed operating trajectory
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
50
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.8
Δ21d
+0.6
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-5.4
Sentiment
81
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.4
Δ21d
+8.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 50.0 / Value 61.0 / Sentiment 80.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$24.09B
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
187.45M
P/E (TTM)
9.2
P/S (TTM)
1.33
P/FCF (TTM)
16.97
Rev YoY
-9.6%
EPS YoY
-18.3%
Gross Margin
+25.0%
Op Margin
+15.6%
Net Debt
$287.9M
Current Ratio
5.28
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data