B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PHAT
PhathomANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue reached $74.3 million, up 88% year over year; VOQUEZNA prescriptions continued to grow, and the company achieved positive operating profit excluding stock-based compensation ahead of guidance. Pipeline expansion into NERD and EoE provides additional upside optionality.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
NERD Phase 3 and EoE development programs carry clinical, regulatory, and timing risk.
Momentum
8
Value
41
Sentiment
98
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $11.00 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $20.45
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d -2.3
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment98 · Δ7d +12.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • NERD Phase 3 and EoE development programs carry clinical, regulatory, and timing risk.
- • Prior-authorization and fulfillment hurdles may limit VOQUEZNA adoption beyond severe GERD patients.
- • The updated FY2026 revenue outlook of $310 million-$325 million reflects meaningful execution risk from payer authorization and prescription fulfillment friction.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02
Eosinophilic esophagitis Phase 2 topline data
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
8
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
+1.9
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
98
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.9
Δ21d
+8.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 8.0 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 98.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$750.76M
Beta
0.52
Shares Out
80.9M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.1
P/S (TTM)
7.65
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-19.47
Rev YoY
+88.0%
EPS YoY
-79.9%
Gross Margin
+82.9%
Op Margin
-17.0%
Net Debt
$459.2M
Current Ratio
1.92
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data